Ellas Syrou vs Niki Volos
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-10-11 · 12:00 CET
WWDDL
LLWDWThe score model made an Ellas Syrou win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ellas Syrou 1.37 – 0.94 Niki Volos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellas Syrou win | 46.9% | 29.8% | +17.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 31.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Niki Volos win | 25.9% | 38.6% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 38.1% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% | 20.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 45.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 27.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ellas Syrou 21.2 / Niki Volos 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.