Lubeck vs Norderstedt
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-11-14 · 14:00 CET
DWDLD
WLLLDThe score model made a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 1.89 – 1.29 Norderstedt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubeck win | 50.7% | 52.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 22.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Norderstedt win | 25.2% | 24.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 67.7% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 49.1% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 67.5% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.5% | 47.4% | -5.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lubeck 30.4 / Norderstedt 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lubeck vs Norderstedt in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.