VfB Oldenburg vs Emden
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 15:00 CET
LWWLL
WLWWLThe score model makes a VfB Oldenburg win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VfB Oldenburg 2.58 – 1.59 Emden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Oldenburg win | 58.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 18.8% | — | — |
| Emden win | 22.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 73.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VfB Oldenburg 45.3 / Emden 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.