St. Pauli II vs Hannoverscher SC
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 14:00 CET
WWLLL
DLLWWThe score model made a St. Pauli II win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Pauli II 2.04 – 1.41 Hannoverscher SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli II win | 51.6% | 51.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Hannoverscher SC win | 26.0% | 24.7% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 66.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 46.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | 65.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 46.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Pauli II 46.5 / Hannoverscher SC 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.