Bremer vs Drochtersen/Assel
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 15:00 CET
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WDWWLThe score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bremer 1.19 – 1.90 Drochtersen/Assel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer win | 23.2% | 11.7% | +11.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 17.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Drochtersen/Assel win | 53.3% | 70.8% | -17.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 68.1% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 48.9% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 57.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 45.2% | -8.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bremer 46.5 / Drochtersen/Assel 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.