Hannoverscher SC vs Phonix Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-09-02 · 18:00 CET
DDLLW
WWWWLThe score model made a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hannoverscher SC 1.21 – 2.14 Phonix Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannoverscher SC win | 20.4% | 25.8% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 24.6% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Phonix Lubeck win | 58.1% | 49.7% | +8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 63.7% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 44.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 64.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 44.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hannoverscher SC 26.2 / Phonix Lubeck 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.