Schoningen vs St. Pauli II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-08-26 · 18:30 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Schoningen win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Schoningen 1.91 – 1.63 St. Pauli II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schoningen win | 44.2% | 53.2% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| St. Pauli II win | 32.7% | 23.3% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 64.1% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | 44.1% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 63.8% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 44.1% | -8.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Schoningen 25.5 / St. Pauli II 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.