Regensburg vs TSV Havelse
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 14:00 CET
LLDLD
WLDLLThe score model makes a Regensburg win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 74%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 73.6% vs 67.7% implied (+5.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Regensburg 2.39 – 1.44 TSV Havelse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 58.3% | 58.0% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 19.9% | 21.5% | -1.7% |
| TSV Havelse win | 21.8% | 20.5% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.6% | 67.7% | +5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.3% | 47.7% | +5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | 64.3% | +5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 46.0% | -2.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Regensburg 34.8 / TSV Havelse 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.