Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 16:30 CET
WWLWW
WLDWWThe score model makes a Duisburg win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 50.6% vs 44.1% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Duisburg 2.15 – 1.39 Hoffenheim II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 54.3% | 53.6% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 23.1% | -1.5% |
| Hoffenheim II win | 24.1% | 23.4% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 62.9% | +5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.2% | 43.2% | +4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 62.0% | +4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 44.1% | +6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Duisburg 37 / Hoffenheim II 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.