Nancy vs Guingamp
Ligue 2, France · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
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DWLLLThe score model made a Guingamp win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nancy 1.29 – 1.34 Guingamp.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 35.5% | 49.1% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Guingamp win | 37.9% | 24.7% | +13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 52.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 31.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 55.3% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 35.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nancy 26.3 / Guingamp 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.