Dunkerque vs Annecy
Ligue 2, France · 2026-10-09 · 20:00 CET
LDWLL
WLLWLThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.45 – 1.32 Annecy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque win | 39.9% | 41.9% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.3% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Annecy win | 34.3% | 30.8% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 52.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 31.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 57.4% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.6% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunkerque 42 / Annecy 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.