Red Star vs Reims
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
DLWWW
WWDWDThe score model made a Reims win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Red Star 1.15 – 1.39 Reims.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Star win | 30.9% | 32.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 29.0% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Reims win | 42.3% | 38.6% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 46.4% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 26.3% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 52.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 32.0% | +7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Red Star 36 / Reims 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.