Annecy vs Metz
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
LDWLL
DDWLDThe score model made a Metz win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annecy 1.18 – 1.40 Metz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annecy win | 31.6% | 37.7% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 29.3% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Metz win | 41.8% | 33.0% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 45.3% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 25.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 51.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 31.6% | -6.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annecy 44 / Metz 16.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.