Annecy vs Metz
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-29 · 14:00 CET
WLWWL
DWWDDThe score model makes an Metz win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Metz win — 41.7% vs 33.5% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annecy 1.19 – 1.40 Metz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annecy win | 31.9% | 37.3% | -5.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 29.1% | -2.8% |
| Metz win | 41.7% | 33.5% | +8.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 44.6% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 24.9% | +1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 50.8% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 31.0% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annecy 44.4 / Metz 16.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.