Nancy vs Dunkerque
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
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LLDWLThe score model made a Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nancy 1.19 – 1.49 Dunkerque.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 30.3% | 37.8% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Dunkerque win | 44.0% | 34.3% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 51.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 30.5% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 56.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 35.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nancy 24.4 / Dunkerque 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.