Nancy vs Dunkerque
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
WWDLW
LLWDLThe score model makes an Dunkerque win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 72.4% vs 64.0% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nancy 1.19 – 1.50 Dunkerque.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 30.2% | 36.8% | -6.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.0% | -1.5% |
| Dunkerque win | 44.3% | 36.1% | +8.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 52.5% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 31.6% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 57.0% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 36.0% | -8.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nancy 24.7 / Dunkerque 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.