Laval vs Grenoble
Ligue 2, France · 2026-08-28 · 20:00 CET
DLLLD
LWLWDThe score model made a Laval win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Laval 1.13 – 1.00 Grenoble.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laval win | 38.5% | 45.1% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.4% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Grenoble win | 31.8% | 25.5% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 44.5% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 24.8% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 50.3% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.6% | 30.8% | -8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Laval 45.8 / Grenoble 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.