Monaco vs Toulouse
Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
WWDWD
LDWDWThe score model made a Monaco win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Monaco 1.95 – 1.15 Toulouse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 55.3% | 58.1% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 22.7% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Toulouse win | 21.6% | 19.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 60.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 39.1% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.7% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 40.6% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Monaco 42.3 / Toulouse 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.