Lorient vs Paris FC
Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
DLWDL
DWWDWThe score model makes a Paris FC win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.6% vs 66.3% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lorient 1.30 – 1.34 Paris FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient win | 35.3% | 30.5% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.3% | -0.7% |
| Paris FC win | 37.1% | 41.3% | -4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 49.7% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 29.5% | -2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 54.9% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 33.7% | -5.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lorient 32.5 / Paris FC 25.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.