Brest vs Angers
Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-10 · 20:45 CET
DDWLL
LWLDWThe score model makes a Brest win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.4% vs 66.8% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brest 1.55 – 0.92 Angers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest win | 51.3% | 47.7% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.3% | +0.8% |
| Angers win | 21.7% | 26.0% | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 53.9% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 33.2% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 56.5% | -8.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 36.3% | +1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brest 42.9 / Angers 37.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.