Lens vs Lyon
Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-09 · 20:45 CET
WWWLL
LWLWLThe score model made a Lens win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lens 1.60 – 1.26 Lyon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 44.7% | 37.5% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Lyon win | 29.4% | 36.2% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 61.9% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 41.1% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 65.0% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 41.8% | -7.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lens 42.5 / Lyon 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lens vs Lyon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.