Monaco vs Marseille
Ligue 1, France · 2026-08-30 · 20:45 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Monaco win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Monaco 1.83 – 1.69 Marseille.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco win | 41.1% | 42.8% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.4% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Marseille win | 35.5% | 30.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | 59.4% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.8% | 38.8% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | 63.0% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 40.6% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Monaco 42.1 / Marseille 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.