VPS vs Gnistan
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-12 · 17:00 CET
WLLLW
DWDDLThe score model made a VPS win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.43 – 1.34 Gnistan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 39.1% | 37.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Gnistan win | 35.2% | 35.2% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 54.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 33.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 59.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 36.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 37 / Gnistan 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.