AC Oulu vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-12 · 18:00 CET
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WDDWWThe score model made an HJK win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.09 – 1.85 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 22.0% | 21.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| HJK win | 55.0% | 53.7% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 55.6% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.9% | 34.5% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 56.0% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 37.6% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 36.9 / HJK 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.