TPS vs Jaro
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WDWDD
LLLLLThe score model makes a TPS win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: TPS win — 64.6% vs 45.0% implied (+19.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TPS 1.86 – 0.71 Jaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPS win | 64.6% | 45.0% | +19.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 27.3% | -5.1% |
| Jaro win | 13.3% | 27.7% | -14.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 51.2% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 30.2% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 54.7% | -11.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 34.5% | -0.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TPS 17.9 / Jaro 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.