Mariehamn vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
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LWLLLThe score model makes an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ilves win — 59.1% vs 42.4% implied (+16.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mariehamn 1.13 – 2.09 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn win | 19.7% | 31.8% | -12.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 25.8% | -4.6% |
| Ilves win | 59.1% | 42.4% | +16.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 59.6% | +2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 39.0% | +1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 62.4% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 40.7% | -1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mariehamn 33.5 / Ilves 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.