SJK vs Lahti
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-09 · 17:00 CET
WDLLD
WDLWWThe score model makes an SJK win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.9% vs 65.1% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.26 – 1.14 Lahti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 38.7% | 36.7% | +2.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.7% | +1.6% |
| Lahti win | 33.0% | 36.7% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 55.8% | -12.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 34.9% | -12.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 59.8% | -10.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 37.5% | -8.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 33.5 / Lahti 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.