VPS vs Lahti
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-31 · 18:00 CET
WLWLL
WDLWWThe score model made a VPS win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.19 – 0.95 Lahti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 41.3% | 43.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Lahti win | 29.2% | 29.4% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 53.2% | -16.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.1% | 32.5% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.0% | 57.0% | -14.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 36.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 35 / Lahti 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.