Ilves vs HJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-31 · 18:00 CET
LWLLL
LWWDDThe score model made an HJK win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 1.67 – 1.78 HJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 36.4% | 25.0% | +11.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.8% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| HJK win | 41.0% | 51.2% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 61.6% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.3% | 41.1% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | 62.1% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 34.9 / HJK 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.