Gnistan vs TPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-31 · 18:00 CET
WDDWD
WDWDDThe score model made a Gnistan win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.35 – 1.25 TPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 38.9% | 48.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 24.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| TPS win | 34.6% | 27.1% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 60.6% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 40.0% | -13.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 61.8% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 41.4% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gnistan 32.6 / TPS 18.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.