TPS vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-23 · 17:00 CET
LLWDW
DLWDWThe score model makes an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 62.0% vs 49.6% implied (+12.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: TPS 1.07 – 1.14 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TPS win | 33.3% | 24.7% | +8.6% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 26.4% | +3.2% |
| Inter Turku win | 37.0% | 48.9% | -11.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 50.4% | -12.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 29.7% | -11.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 53.2% | -8.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 34.2% | +0.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: TPS 17.5 / Inter Turku 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.