KuPS vs Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-23 · 14:00 CET
LLDDW
LLWWWThe score model made a KuPS win the most likely outcome at 80%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KuPS 2.53 – 0.55 Mariehamn.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS win | 80.2% | 74.6% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.9% | 15.5% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Mariehamn win | 5.9% | 9.8% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | 67.2% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 46.9% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.0% | 52.5% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.0% | 46.0% | -0.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KuPS 34.3 / Mariehamn 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.