Jaro vs AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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WDLLLThe score model made an AC Oulu win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jaro 1.30 – 1.45 AC Oulu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaro win | 33.5% | 27.7% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| AC Oulu win | 40.5% | 46.6% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 55.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 34.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 58.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 37.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jaro 27.1 / AC Oulu 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.