Ilves vs VPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
LLLWLThe score model makes a Ilves win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Ilves win — 48.1% vs 41.6% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 1.77 – 1.31 VPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 48.1% | 41.6% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.9% | -2.1% |
| VPS win | 28.1% | 32.5% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 58.7% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 37.6% | -0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 61.4% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 40.4% | +1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 34.8 / VPS 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.