Ilves vs VPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LWLLL
WLWLLThe score model made an Ilves win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ilves 1.77 – 1.31 VPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 47.9% | 40.9% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| VPS win | 28.2% | 32.8% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 57.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 36.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 60.8% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 39.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ilves 34.6 / VPS 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.