SJK vs Lahti
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
LLWDL
WLWDLThe score model makes a SJK win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.7% vs 64.3% implied (+13.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK 1.34 – 1.07 Lahti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJK win | 42.4% | 37.9% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.9% | +1.1% |
| Lahti win | 29.6% | 35.3% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 56.4% | -13.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 35.7% | -13.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 60.3% | -11.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 38.5% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK 34.9 / Lahti 25.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.