Gnistan vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-17 · 17:00 CET
WDDWD
LWLLLThe score model made a Gnistan win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.68 – 1.63 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 39.3% | 35.2% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 26.4% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Ilves win | 37.2% | 38.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 60.0% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.1% | 39.8% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | 63.4% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 41.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gnistan 31.4 / Ilves 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.