Gnistan vs Ilves
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-17 · 17:00 CET
WWWLD
LWWLWThe score model makes a Gnistan win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 64.6% vs 59.4% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gnistan 1.69 – 1.64 Ilves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan win | 39.4% | 39.7% | -0.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.5% | -3.1% |
| Ilves win | 37.2% | 33.9% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 59.4% | +5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.6% | 39.0% | +3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 63.0% | +2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 40.6% | +1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gnistan 31.5 / Ilves 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.