Lahti vs KuPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
WWLWD
WWWWDThe score model makes an KuPS win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 65.6% vs 49.9% implied (+15.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lahti 0.88 – 1.19 KuPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lahti win | 26.9% | 36.3% | -9.5% |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.6% | +2.7% |
| KuPS win | 42.8% | 36.0% | +6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | 50.1% | -15.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.7% | 29.7% | -14.0% |
| Both teams to score | 41.2% | 55.6% | -14.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 34.1% | -5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lahti 24.5 / KuPS 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.