Lahti vs KuPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
WDLWW
LLDDWThe score model made a KuPS win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lahti 0.88 – 1.19 KuPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahti win | 27.1% | 35.1% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| KuPS win | 42.5% | 37.1% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.2% | 50.4% | -16.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.6% | 29.6% | -14.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.1% | 55.7% | -14.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 34.5% | -5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lahti 24.4 / KuPS 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.