HJK vs Jaro
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 15:00 CET
LWWLW
WDWLLThe score model makes a HJK win the most likely outcome at 75%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 59.4% vs 55.1% implied (+4.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HJK 2.67 – 0.87 Jaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| HJK win | 75.2% | 71.1% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 15.1% | 17.5% | -2.4% |
| Jaro win | 9.7% | 11.3% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | 65.7% | +3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.2% | 45.1% | +2.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 54.0% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 44.9% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HJK 34.1 / Jaro 26.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.