HJK vs Jaro
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 15:00 CET
LWWDD
LLLLLThe score model made an HJK win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: HJK 2.67 – 0.87 Jaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJK win | 75.3% | 71.6% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.1% | 17.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Jaro win | 9.6% | 11.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | 65.7% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | 45.0% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 53.8% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 45.1% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: HJK 34 / Jaro 26.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.