AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
LLDWL
WDLWDThe score model makes an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Inter Turku win — 49.9% vs 41.9% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 0.94 – 1.50 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 23.4% | 29.4% | -6.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.7% | -2.0% |
| Inter Turku win | 49.9% | 41.9% | +8.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 46.2% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 26.3% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 52.0% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 32.0% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 34.1 / Inter Turku 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.