AC Oulu vs Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
WDLLL
DWLWWThe score model made an Inter Turku win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Oulu 0.94 – 1.49 Inter Turku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 23.5% | 31.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 28.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Inter Turku win | 49.7% | 39.5% | +10.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 46.4% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 26.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 52.6% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 31.9% | -2.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Oulu 34 / Inter Turku 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.