Mariehamn vs SJK
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
LLWWW
WDLLDThe score model made an SJK win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mariehamn 0.96 – 1.97 SJK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariehamn win | 17.5% | 18.0% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 21.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| SJK win | 60.7% | 60.9% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 65.6% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 44.7% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 61.3% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 44.6% | -15.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mariehamn 34.2 / SJK 34.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.