VPS vs TPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-14 · 17:00 CET
WLWLL
WDWDDThe score model made a VPS win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.28 – 1.02 TPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 42.0% | 53.5% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.3% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| TPS win | 29.2% | 21.2% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 52.9% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 32.7% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 54.0% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 36.4% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 34.3 / TPS 16.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.