VPS vs TPS
Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-08-14 · 17:00 CET
WLLLW
WLLWDThe score model makes a VPS win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.8% vs 47.2% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VPS 1.28 – 1.02 TPS.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VPS win | 42.0% | 55.4% | -13.4% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 24.7% | +4.0% |
| TPS win | 29.2% | 19.9% | +9.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 52.8% | -12.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 32.1% | -12.2% |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 53.4% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 36.2% | -3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: VPS 34.4 / TPS 16.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.