Kuressaare vs Nomme Utd
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-11-07 · 11:30 CET
WLLDL
LWWWLThe score model makes a Kuressaare win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.1% vs 56.3% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kuressaare 1.57 – 1.45 Nomme Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare win | 42.0% | 34.8% | +7.2% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 24.5% | -3.5% |
| Nomme Utd win | 36.9% | 40.6% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 64.1% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 43.7% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 65.3% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 44.4% | -6.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kuressaare 53.6 / Nomme Utd 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kuressaare vs Nomme Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.