Parnu JK Vaprus vs Narva
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
LLLDD
DLDDLThe score model made a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parnu JK Vaprus 1.73 – 1.05 Narva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 54.2% | 37.0% | +17.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 26.6% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Narva win | 24.1% | 36.4% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 57.6% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 37.1% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 60.3% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parnu JK Vaprus 50.2 / Narva 50.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.