Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-10 · 13:30 CET
LWWLD
LWDWWThe score model made a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.17 – 0.87 Harju JK Laagri.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 67.9% | 61.0% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.4% | 21.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Harju JK Laagri win | 14.6% | 17.6% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 62.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 42.0% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 57.9% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 43.1% | +1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 50.2 / Harju JK Laagri 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.