Nomme Utd vs Paide
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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WLWWWThe score model made a Paide win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nomme Utd 1.17 – 2.15 Paide.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomme Utd win | 20.8% | 21.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.5% | 21.5% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Paide win | 60.7% | 57.4% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 68.4% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 50.1% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 65.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 48.6% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nomme Utd 31.2 / Paide 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nomme Utd vs Paide in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.