Flora vs Tammeka
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-09-02 · 18:00 CET
WWDWW
WLWLLThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Flora 2.51 – 0.85 Tammeka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora win | 74.3% | 58.2% | +16.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.3% | 21.9% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Tammeka win | 11.5% | 19.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 66.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% | 47.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 63.7% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.0% | 46.1% | +5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Flora 49.3 / Tammeka 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.