Narva vs Tammeka
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
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WLWLLThe score model made a Narva win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Narva 1.45 – 1.32 Tammeka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narva win | 41.5% | 39.6% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 26.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Tammeka win | 35.8% | 33.8% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 56.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 35.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 59.6% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 38.7% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Narva 49.4 / Tammeka 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.