Kalju vs Levadia
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-30 · 13:30 CET
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WWWWDThe score model made a Levadia win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 1.18 – 1.39 Levadia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 33.2% | 17.2% | +16.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 22.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Levadia win | 43.2% | 60.0% | -16.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 55.1% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 34.5% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 52.2% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.2% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 49.5 / Levadia 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.