Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DWLLD
WWLLLThe score model made a Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kuressaare 1.24 – 1.28 Parnu JK Vaprus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare win | 37.0% | 42.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.6% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 39.0% | 31.5% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 55.5% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 35.5% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 58.8% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 38.2% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kuressaare 49.6 / Parnu JK Vaprus 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.