Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
WWLLL
WWDWWThe score model made a Flora win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parnu JK Vaprus 1.04 – 1.89 Flora.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 21.7% | 19.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.9% | 21.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Flora win | 58.4% | 59.0% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 63.6% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 43.8% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 60.6% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 44.1% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parnu JK Vaprus 48.3 / Flora 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.