Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
LWLDL
WWLWLThe score model makes an Flora win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.3% vs 56.5% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parnu JK Vaprus 1.03 – 1.90 Flora.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 21.2% | 20.2% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 20.3% | 22.3% | -1.9% |
| Flora win | 58.4% | 57.5% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 63.5% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 43.5% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 61.2% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 43.8% | -3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parnu JK Vaprus 48.5 / Flora 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.