Tammeka vs Kuressaare
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WWLLW
LDLWWThe score model makes a Tammeka win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.3% vs 63.8% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tammeka 1.50 – 1.16 Kuressaare.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tammeka win | 45.9% | 50.1% | -4.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.9% | -1.5% |
| Kuressaare win | 30.6% | 24.9% | +5.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 57.1% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 36.2% | -8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 58.2% | -5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 39.2% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tammeka 46.8 / Kuressaare 49.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.