Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLLThe score model made a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.02 – 0.81 Parnu JK Vaprus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 66.5% | 65.4% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.4% | 20.0% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 15.2% | 14.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 63.4% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% | 43.3% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 56.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 43.9% | -1.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 49 / Parnu JK Vaprus 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.