Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
DWDWW
WLWLDThe score model makes a Kalju win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.5% vs 57.3% implied (+11.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kalju 2.02 – 0.81 Parnu JK Vaprus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju win | 66.4% | 65.2% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 18.7% | 20.1% | -1.4% |
| Parnu JK Vaprus win | 15.0% | 14.8% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 62.9% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 42.7% | -11.3% |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 55.8% | -8.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 43.1% | -1.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kalju 49.1 / Parnu JK Vaprus 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.